http://mvn.com/nfl-redskins/2008/05/20/why-dont-nfl-scouts-like-colt-brennan/NFL Scouting is a tricky issue to evaluate. In a multi-million dollar industry, they don’t make a whole lot of money. Most scouts do what they do because they love what they do. That much is commendable really.
But NFL Scouts are rarely held responsible for their own evaluations. And that has led to a culture where no one really improves over time. It’s a culture where doing it their way has become more important than doing the best job they can.
No one is expected to be perfect — but a better track record would be nice for those teams that perennially draft busts and finish below .500. Scott Campbell, the former director of college scouting — now the director of player personnel — for the Redskins has done a great job in his craft, and the Redskins have avoided drafting a major bust since 2002 with Taylor Jacobs.
Ultimately though, every team in the NFL had a scouting consensus that Colt Brennan was not a first day pick. Not even a first 5 round pick. Brennan wasn’t the only Quarterback with stats that indicate NFL success who slipped in the draft. Green Bay and Miami landed prototype franchise QBs in the second round. Andre Woodson, a 3.5 year starter at Kentucky, actually fell further than Brennan. I could do a very long post on why all these guys got overlooked by scouts, but only one of those guys is a Redskin, so I will focus on him.
First a disclaimer: The fatal error many scouts make comes when they just don’t have enough film to grade on, but pass judgment anyway. Obviously this isn’t the case with Brennan. Colt was one of the most celebrated/nitpicked QBs in modern college history. Scouts simply just don’t like him. Obviously it’s not his body of work, that’s astounding. There’s another reason that makes scouts shy away from him. Could it be:
Brennan Struggled in Big Games
This is a horrible argument. For the longest time, this was the knock on Peyton Manning — the greatest QB in modern history. The reason this is such a bad argument is that a “big game” is totally 100% subjective. Certainly, Bowl Games should be considered big games, but what about major conference games? Heck, what about every D-I college football game every played?! I’d say that’s pretty large scale. Any scout who is willing to limit his tape evaluation to 2-3 games is going to be wrong a large percentage of the time, pure and simple.
Colt’s Numbers are Inflated by the Spread Offense
This makes a little more sense, but the concept of inflated numbers is a bit odd. Obviously, counting stats like touchdowns, yards, and interceptions can be inflated by the amount of times a guy throws, and research has shown that a guy who throws 60 times a game gains no more college experience than a QB who starts the same amount of games, but only throws 35 times a game.
Rate stats, such as yards per attempt, and completion percentage, can not be inflated. For those, the more times a player throws, the stronger our confidence gets in the accuracy of the number. Colt Brennan’s completion percentage isn’t quite as impressive as his TD totals suggest it should be, but for his career, it’s still in the upper 60’s. I mean, at the very least, he deserved strong consideration in the second round based on that alone.
Colt didn’t play any serious competition at Hawaii
This is a legitimate reason for concern, but scouts are seemingly missing the point: this is a reason for re-evaluation–not to write a guy off. Chad Pennington, Jim Kelly, and Daunte Culpepper all came out of small schools to face pretty good competition. Maybe the quality of competition that Joe Flacco saw in the Atlantic-10 was a tad better than what Brennan saw in the WAC, but it doesn’t make sense to totally write Brennan off while drafting Flacco 18th overall.
Colt has Skeletons in his Closet
I hate the whole concept of character issues affecting draft stock. These kids are young, feel invulnerable, and are prone to making mistakes. Brennan got booted from Colorado for misconduct, spent a year in JUCO, and ended up at Hawaii, where he went on to become a record setting passer. Are we seriously going to confuse Brennan for a guy with a long list of Felonies?
Players, QBs especially, who play in JUCO are Ill-Equipped to Develop in the NFL
This is an interesting one. Brennan transferred to JUCO after the 2003 season, spent the 2004 season as a JUCO QB, before walking on at Hawaii in 2005. The knock on JUCO QBs is pretty damning: That the skills learned at small programs by these coaches equip players to succeed in the college game, but actually hurt their pro prospects. This is probably the most legitimate criticism of Brennan, as the skill set that made him successful in college might not translate well to the NFL. It is a rare case, to be certain, that a JUCO passer ends up two years later tearing up and burning all the college record books, but it’s sort of like playing in the arena league for the NFL: you get valuable experience while you are there — but the longer you stay, the tougher the transition to the next level will be. For Brennan, the bill may be coming due about now.
With that said, how many NFL scouts do you think went through this type of thought process when grading the guy? If you said none, keep reading.
Brennan lacks a big arm
Who cares? The NFL is so timing based that any QB who can throw the ball 30 yards on a rope has as good of an arm as is needed to succeed. That includes…any serious pro QB prospect.
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Scouts seem to want to write Brennan off rather than evaluate him. He probably wouldn’t develop even if given the chance, that’s just the nature of players like him. This case, though, is incredibly intriguing. I mean, Brennan’s numbers alone means he’s earned a tongue in cheek shot at NFL stardom. He’s probably not going to get it in Washington, but he figures to succeed Todd Collins as the team’s backup QB, and just a small sample of success is all he will need for the Redskins to be able to turn around and deal him for a day one pick to a team who needs a starting QB.
The hype surrounding him should work in Washington’s favor here, and hopefully Colt gets his shot. He’s simply not the pro prospect Jason Campbell is, and he never will be. But he’s a good prospect in his own right, and the Redskins should be happy to have him
